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Situation:
Pasta was out, meat was in. By the time the 2003-2004 holiday
season rolled around, the low carb diet that had been introduced
15 years earlier was suddenly all the rage. Consumers couldn’t
get enough low-carb products. The only problem: few stores
carried any. There are no accurate figures, but most analysts
estimated that the lost opportunity for CPG manufacturers
topped more than $1B that season—more than $100M for
each major manufacturer. But the story didn’t end there.
Many Consumer Packaged Goods manufacturers saw the demand
and geared up to introduce new products that year. Unilever,
Kraft, General Mills and others launched low carb breads,
mixes, pasta and sauces. But as in all things, timing is everything.
By the time products hit the shelf, the diet was on the wane.
Solution:
Umbria could have predicted the trend as it was heating up
in the blogosphere and on-line discussions. An opportunity
lost. As CPG manufacturers geared up to chase the trend, Umbria
could have listened, and provided critical input on consumer
attitudes and behavior—well ahead of traditional market
research methods—and likely in time to forestall an
expensive launch.
Outcome:
Almost all took a major loss on their new products. Even Atkins
Nutritionals, the firm that started it all, filed for bankruptcy
in August of 2005.
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